Coronavirus Models Show More Infections, Deaths As States Begin To Open

(AmericanPoliticalDaily.Com)- With some states starting to re-open their economies, there is natural concern that coronavirus infections, and deaths, will start to rise again.
On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the seven different coronavirus models will continue rise in the coming weeks, depending on how much “contract reduction” the people of America practice. According to the CDC:
“State-level forecasts vary widely, reflecting differences in the early epidemic phases, timing of interventions and model-specific assumptions.”
The models show new infections and deaths will “slow substantially over the next four weeks,” as long as contact reduction is continued as medical experts have strongly suggested.
“Conversely, models that do not incorporate as strong contact reductions … suggest that total deaths may continue to rise quickly,” the CDC said.
One of the more popular models that the White House often cites, conducted by the University of Washington’s Institute for Help Metrics and Evaluation, increased its projection of total deaths from COVID-19 from 67,641 to 74,000. Dr. Chris Murray, from the organization, said the model was adjusted up because of longer predicted peaks in some states, and signs that residents of these states are becoming more active.
As Murray said:
“It’s a safer strategy to get the number of infections in the community down to a really low level, and then testing and contact tracing and isolation can work.”
The models are updated constantly to reflect the actions of people, which are most directly influenced by what their state governors are deciding to do. Georgia, for example, has decided to plow forward with re-opening their state, even though it hasn’t met the “gating” criteria the White House set forth for re-opening a few weeks ago.
But Governor Brian Kemp said his state is “moving forward with data and information and decisions from the local public health officials, meeting and working with the guidelines of the great plan that the President has laid out.”
And as the commissioner of the state’s Department of Public Health, Dr. Kathleen Toomey, said:
“We didn’t meet the full gating criteria, but we met several of them, and we were approaching a plateauing, which made us feel that it would be safe to move forward because we had three things in place.”
More states are working on re-opening at least part of their economies in the coming days. Missouri Governor Mike Parson announced Monday that the state would begin lifting some of their restrictions starting on May 4. Missouri’s plan includes allowing any business in any industry to re-open as long as they can maintain social distancing measures of six feet between all people.
Indoor retail businesses just need to also restrict the number of customers who are allowed in their building so it doesn’t exceed a quarter of the normal allowable capacity. In announcing the plan, Parson said:
“Our plan is working, the healthcare system is not overwhelmed, and we are winning the battle.”