(AmericanPoliticalDaily.com)- Either the polls are going to be dramatically wrong again on November 3rd 2020, or something is going very, very wrong for President Donald Trump.
According to a poll from CNBC and Change Research, presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is leading President Trump by some big margins in six important swing states. If accurate, the polls suggest that voters are frustrated with the impact of the Chinese coronavirus and the economic problems that came with it. Before the virus came, you may remember the record employment and booming economy.
The survey asked likely voters in six states who they prefer, between Juen 26 and 28. All six states, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, and Arizona, show Biden with a significant lead over the president. The biggest lead is in Wisconsin, where Biden is thought to be eight percentage points up over Trump.
Take a look:
Biden 51% (+7)
Biden 50% (+5)
Biden 51% (+8)
Biden 50% (+6)
Biden 48% (+5)
Biden 51% (+7)
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2020
The margin of error in the polls is +/- 1.6 percent, meaning even if they’re catastrophically wrong, it’s unlikely Trump is really doing all that well.
There is another possibility, however, and it could be that the polls are oversampling Democrats. The “shy Trump” vote could also have a hand in the results. This is the phenomenon of people refusing to tell pollsters the truth, out of fear of being judged. It’s an effect that played a part in the surprising Brexit vote in 2016, and Trump’s win later that year.
The survey suggests that the reason why the president is struggling is his response to the coronavirus. In one state, some 35% of people blamed Trump for a recent increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations…but it was followed by 34% of people saying it was a lack of people wearing masks.
We won’t really know what’s happening until November, but id the polls are right, then Trump has an uphill battle to face before November.