(AmericanPoliticalDaily.com)- A new poll published by the Trafalgar Group on Monday shows that President Donald Trump is trailing presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden by some five points in Pennsylvania.
Biden sits at 48% in the key swing state, and Trump at 43%.
The results are consistent with other major polls recently taken in Pennsylvania, including the average of polls published by RealClearPolitics. When the new results from the Trafalgar Group are added to the RealClearPolitics average, former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Trump by some 6.5 points.
While polls have been wrong before, it’s still big enough a margin for things to go wrong for the president. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but it wasn’t a big margin. He beat Clinton by just under 70,000 votes or 1.2% of the votes cast. That’s narrow, and if Trump wants to win Pennsylvania again, he’ll need to climb higher in these polls to even be in with a shot within the margin of error.
The poll by the Trafalgar Group questioned 1,062 likely voters in Pennsylvania, and the questions were asked between June 29 and July 2. There is a margin of error of 2.9 percent, meaning Trump still loses in this poll in the worst-case scenario. Scarily, the Trafalgar Group isn’t considered biased, either – this is a group that works only with Republican candidates and GOP-related groups.
The news might not come as a surprise to anybody who has been watching the polls recently. Key swing states appear to be opting for Joe Biden in these polls, despite the fact he never seems to leave his basement. Trump is losing in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina – meaning the prospects of a Trump victory in November are getting slimmer all the time.
That doesn’t mean, however, that the polls are right. President Trump regularly praised the “silent majority” and this could have a big effect on the results in November. Many people are simply too afraid to tell pollsters that they support President Trump, out of fear of backlash. Being a Trump supporter today is harder than ever, with violent mobs on the streets willing to attack you if they hear you support the president.
Another reason why Republicans should be optimistic, however, is voter registration. The advantage Democrats have in terms of voter registration has declined pretty steadily since 2008.
According to the York Daily Record, one of the key reasons why Trump surprised everybody in Pennsylvania in 2016 is because some 200,000 people switched parties from Democrat to Republican to vote for him in the primaries.
The Democrats, as of Monday, now have a voter registration advantage of around 794,000, which is lower than the 1.2 million figure from 2008 and even the 915,081 advantage they had in 2016. Since 2018, Democrats have signed up 54,076 new voters and Republicans have taken in 75,866. That’s some good going.